This isn’t so much a prediction as it is what the rankings should be today. I’m not sure that there’s much debate for these initial rankings.
Rank, Team, In-Region Record, (Strength Of Schedule)
1. UW-Whitewater 24-3 (.517)
2. St. Thomas 22-4 (.527)
3. UW-Stevens Point 18-7 (.578)
4. St. Scholastica 23-2 (.506)
5. Concordia Chicago 21-5 (.496)
6. St. Olaf 17-11 (.555)
The next 6: Edgewood 17-11 (.550), Aurora 18-11 (.509), Bethany Lutheran 21-6 (.441), Concordia-Moorhead 18-9 (.492), Rockford 19-9-1 (.477), Concordia (WI) 13-8 (.531)
The above records may not be the same as those in today’s published regional rankings because my records include results through 4/28. The regional rankings should be using records through 4/26, if my memory is correct.
UPDATE: Long story short, the NCAA did not use records through games of 4/27 like the Regional Rankings state. Not good.
Seeing CSS above UWSP is a pleasant surprise. Based on precedent, UWSP’s SOS would trump CSS’s record.
The NCAA also used some fuzzy math, according to my numbers. Also not good.
Here are two posts I made on the D3baseball.com message boards regarding the topics:
I claim the in-region records of these MW/C teams are incorrect in the Regional Rankings and Score Reporting Form. I admit I could be wrong, but I like my numbers more than the NCAA’s. I got an error when I tried to access the Central SRF in the past hour, so this list may be incomplete (Jim, I passed this along to PC already). Perhaps the NCAA is making changes as I type.
Buena Vista
Carthage
North Park
Hamline
Crown
UM-Morris
Presentation
and …
If the NCAA states that the rankings are through games of 4/27, I wish the records would include all games from 4/27. Seems logical to me and not a mere matter of semantics, but many results from 4/27 in the MW and C regions were not included apparently.
It becomes imperative that records are uniformly dealt with across the regions because a fairly important primary criterion, record vs regionally ranked opponents, is now termed – paraphrasing – “once ranked, always ranked.” For example, if the 4/27 games were included for Edgewood and St. Olaf in the Midwest, I suspect St. Olaf would be ranked No. 6 in the region, not Edgewood (although it would be close). What if St. Olaf is ranked and Edgewood is not from here on out? That may seem minor, but I don’t think it is.
Here are the first (of three public ones) Regional Rankings.
-Ricky Nelson
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